I'm thinking that the art of successful project management at Microsoft can be pretty well described by substituting "project management" for "poker" in the excerpts below from: The Tao of Poker: 285 Rules to Transform Your Game and Your Life, by Larry W. Phillips.
POKER RULE #78: "When somebody bets into you, strongly, or raises you, look at them and ask yourself the following question: How serious are they?"
What is their level of commitment? There is a certain "solidity" to when a player really has the goods-- a kind of wall-like solidity of purpose. It usually has a kind of Mt. Rushmore look to it. Look also for smoothness, naturalness, ease of movement-- mannerisms that show they are proceeding quite confidently without much fear at all.
Another way of asking the same question might be: "Am I beat?" In fact, most opponents will tell you, with their body language, demeanor and betting, whether you are about to lose (or whether they are “ahead” of you in the hand). But you must hear it—and you must be able to act on the answer.
In low-limit games, try to move your poker play in the direction of matching your "folds" to how certain your opponents seem to be that they are about to win.
POKER RULE #80: “Mastering yourself.”
At the more advanced levels of poker, mastering yourself becomes a key part of the game. This is because at this level of play you already know the game, and so do your opponents, and everybody is approximately equal. The person who masters himself is the one who gains an important edge.
POKER RULE #91: "A player who is good enough to win is also good enough to break even."
It's a funny thing about talent-- it can be used for more than just winning. Or for less.
Violinist Itzak Perlman could use his violin talent to play "Lady of Spain" in a subway station. Bill Gates could use his computer knowledge to become a very good computer repairman, if he so decided. Pro golfer Tiger Woods could use his talent to play with one arm tied behind his back. (Or to play drunk.)
All these peoples' talents could be used for less than optimum purposes. Make sure some variation of this isn't happening to you. Don't hamper the abilities you have by deliberately handicapping yourself in some way—spotting your opponents some advantage through casualness, playfulness, lack of attention, or indifference.
POKER RULE #95: "The curiosity trap."
You’ve got your poker radar set up to guard against sloppy play. You’ve "steeled" yourself against this and most of the other well-known traps and pitfalls: tilt, “chasing”, anger, revenge, impatience… but how about curiosity? Are your defenses set up for curiosity? Curiosity-- such a small thing, so ordinary and innocent that we hardly notice it-- can sometimes slip underneath our radar.
It's not a highly visible threat. It's not raging emotions. It’s not tilt. Just simple garden-variety curiosity... But it can be just as deadly because it keeps us in too long, staying until the end to see what another player has...