"Today marks the end of IE's domination in the browser space."

So today Microsoft announced that IE's renderer will default to "Standards Mode".  Remember this day.  The end of IE has arrived.  It was a good run.  Why, I remember the days of IE3 when simply rendering a form would result in a memory leak.  I will always have a soft spot in my heart for the XMLHttpRequest object that IE5 introduced.  And I remember when IE6 came out.  I think it was actually still IE5 except that it said it was "IE6".

What?!?  IE dead?

Yup.  Consider this:  The only reason people use IE is to browse stuff that works in IE.  For many web developers, that's Windows Update.  Other than that, there's really no reason to even load it up other than to test your website for IE's quirks.  Even Windows Update is moot, because Vista has made it clear that IE will not be the vessel that Windows Update will use anymore.  And once IE behaves like other browsers, you won't even need it to test your website.  That's right, see you later IE.

Consider this as well: Firefox has a plethora of addons.  IE will never match the sheer volume of these addons.  Even if tomorrow MS released a simple scripting language to compete with Firefox's, it would take a monumentous effort to translate all those addons for IE.  And I somehow have the feeling that the addon authors don't really care about providing a version for IE.  Of course, MS could just implement XUL for IE, but that's too obvious of a path, and MS has an amazing ability to rationalize any decision they make, however wrong. (and yes, I know about XUL for IE.  But it's ancient.  I almost expect to find the thing fossilized in the Burgess Shale bed next to a troglobyte).

Truth be told, standards adherence means absolutely nothing (yes, nothing) to the average web browsing individual.  It's the perception of improved security that Firefox offers that draws people in, and it's the addons that keep 'em interested.  The feature set of FF is so great, and IE so far behind, that the only way that MS will ever catch up is for Billy Gates himself to travel back in time and tell his past self to make a better browser.

But you didn't consider the Corporations!  They need ActiveX!  ActiveX!

Corporations don't decide standards.  They merely entrench them.  Firefox has XUL.  There's stll Java (via Java Web start, not applets), and even .NET apps via that .NET download thingy (I'd like to add Flash to the list, but then I'd feel dirty), so if you really, really need local access, it's still available.  It'll be a boon for us programmers anyhow.  Think of all the ActiveX apps we get to convert!

What's in it for Microsoft?

Part of me wants to think that someone at MS has thought this far and has realized that this is a fairly logical and likely outcome.  On the other hand this is the company that brought us Bob and that damned paperclip, so who knows.  But here's a scenario that could pan out:

Microsoft can't even sneeze without some governing body examining which brands of tissue paper they're using and making sure they're not buying too much of one brand.  MS getting out of the browser business would be a sign to those meddling powers that they're not interested in Ruling The World.  Why, they could even package Firefox with their OS.  Oh sure, they'll still have IE kicking around, but no one would use it.  It'll be like Notepad for the 21st century.

It's ironic, really.  By making IE more like the standard, they've actually removed any reason to keep IE around.  To most people, including developers, Firefox is good enough.

The Atrophy of the Web - Part II

Unfortunately for us, I believe that once Firefox does become the entrenched browser, all innovation will cease once again in the web space.  There's simply no incentive to progress.  But we'll leave that to another blog post... 

(And yes, this is my first post.  And no, I don't have an about me page yet.  But really, what's there to know that you care about?  Besides, I'm still trying to figure out how to use this thing.)