Longhorn in 2008?

According to Gartner, Longhorn isn't going to ship until late 2006-2008:

Gartner estimates there's a 50% chance that Longhorn will be available in 2006, and a 40% chance it will be available in 2007. "If Longhorn becomes available in early 2007, it could be a problem for enterprises," he said. "So we expect Windows 2000 support to be extended for one year beyond its end-of-life. Or it's possible that if Longhorn is delayed to 2008 or 2009, Microsoft may end-of-life Windows 2000 and force customers to upgrade to Windows Server 2003 first."

Now, if the analyst is talking about Blackcomb (the server release), this makes a little more sense (Microsoft has already said they don't expect it to ship till 2006). If he is talking about the desktop OS, I am really confused as to how he came to this conclusion (and why talks so much about Windows 2000 and Windows 2003).

In any case, although the analyst says that there is no compelling reason to upgrade from Windows 2000 to Windows 2003, I would disagree. How about 200% performance improvements in many areas, significantly improved security, services without components, IIS6, ADAM, etc... The reasons to upgrade are definately compelling.