What's going to happen next ... ?

Hey folks the PDC malaria is really everywhere. But  what's going to happen next ?

What if this is just a gigantic souffle just good to finish flat as a nice pancake ;-)

I'm not sure but I think Whidbey will not be release until some time. So how the developers will cope after seeing so many nice feaures, and suddenly have to get back to the reality.

Will they abandon their job until the release of the so promising new version ? Will they sadly accept that it was just a dream, a glimpse on a bright future ?

I imagine that some guys will probably try to mimic .Net 2.

You know what ? I still have to write some ASP code, yes the already 'prehistoric' one, and it's still make my clients happy ;-)

 

4 Comments

  • Exactly.



    I commented a month ago someplace and made some predictions. After a week or two, I expect the inevitable backlash or letdown... Whidbey won't be released for months (thankfully the framework - ASP.NET 2.0 - may be separated from that) and the rest is now slated for 2005-2006. It'll be after the holidays that the true take on this PDC will evolve: some great previews of some great products, but products that are yet far away from being solutions to things we all use currently.



    I thought about this last night. You don't - hell, you can't - pull off the immense logistical details of a PDC without tons of lead time. I suspect MS reserved the bulk of things in LA back in 2002 for this PDC. Remember where things were back then? Whidbey... VS.2004 being released in Q1. Yukon... at one point they thought they might release it with VS.2003! And Longhorn... targeted for late 2004.



    My how things have slipped. I wouldn't be surprised if MS insiders had an entirely different picture of what they thought they would show at this PDC back when they initially scheduled it for this week.



    What got me thinking about this is the rumor that MS is charging MSDN Universal subscribers for the PDC Longhorn bits. Not just others, but MSDN Universal. I realized they probably HAVE TO. How else can they justify charging the pants off of everyone attending the PDC otherwise? How would you feel spending thousands to preview things not ready for prime time and then just giving them away to those who were astute enough to stay home?

  • Guess what - you are so totally right.



    The stuff presented at the PDC is like star wars for most developers: a story a long time (ok, in the future) in a galaxy they are not part of.



    Whidbey BETA is half a year away, a release more. Longhorn is even more in the future. Nothing against the great new technology, and some may be able to use some parts (we will switch some of our website stuff used on secondary sites to Whidbey next week, as it looks like). But you can not really use anything outside a controlled environment.



    But then, people always like a great story, and this is what they get.



    Practical conclusions: hard to zero for most developer's everyday work.



    I htink Dave was right- planning got screwed up seriously here, timewise. Would Whidbey be at least near a beta, things would be more usable for the people.

  • I will write a new posts to group all your comments and some of my thoughts

  • Thomas, I really wasn't accusing MS for a planning screwup. MS is well- and long-known for delays in major releases. I'm sure they did their best to schedule this PDC to be at a time when they expected to have much more to show the attendees - much more truely spectacular stuff to show.



    But realities can and usually do always intrude. You can't just call up and reserve convention center space 6 months ahead of time. Switching file storage systems and going to a vector-based graphical UI will have inevitable stubling blocks along the way. Unforseen ones too.



    At the time they booked everything I believe they really did have a realistic forecast (at least to them) of where they would be in the development cycle this week. I'm sure they still have their problems... hell, they ran late making the PDC Longhorn build!



    So, stuck with the realities - software releases way too far in the future, correctly refusing to give the UI bits out this week because of that... what is one to do to ensure value to the paying customers?



    (1) Hype up the eventual value of everything because it is truely good stuff they are developing. But DO NOT give out a single firm release date - notice how they haven't even mentioned a firm date for ASP.NET 2.0?



    (2) Give out non-strategic bits - read: no Longhorn UI - and drum up how important the feedback is from all attendees. This turns something more akin to vaporware into a "open community" project.



    (3) Charge ALL outsiders a price or else be prepared to hear from the attendees how much money could have been saved by them if they only avoided the hype. Notice how this wasn't announced until AFTER the PDC sold out?



    Nothing screwy here at all. Just good business.

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