GDI - Avalon and more discussion

I think it could be a good idea to post the comment I received from James Avery about GDI, but also to post my thoughts on a more general view.

 James Avery

Everything will always change and invalidate what was made before it, this is IT. This is all still 2-3 years away though, so it does not change anything right now.


James ok for the basics, but can't we have a better global view on the future technologies, something like a 10 years plan ?

Because if I follow this rule .Net can be a thing of the past in 5-6 years.

I like progress, no doubt about this, but I like also smart moves, not only marketing stuff.

Just to complete my last reply, I would say that I have the feeling that all the stuff shown actually at the PDC will certainly have the negative aspect to freeze the creativity on the current products(.Net, XP, etc...)
After all some companies will prefer to wait and see (as usual) what's going to happen next.
With a longer view, you can make better software, keep a high level standard in Research and Development, and eventually the hardware can still progress faster than the software.

3 Comments

  • Ideally, a long-term view would be nice. But I think this might not be plausible for a couple of reasons:



    1.) The view might change abruptly. In 1988 do you think MS could have said, "By 1998 we'll be totally Internet focused?" 99% of the shareholders at the time (and probably 75% of the devs using MS technology) would have asked, "What the heck is the 'Internet?'"



    2.) Such revealings gives MS's competitors an advantage. Find out where MS plans to take the personal computer, and get there first, or find ways to make that path difficult...

  • Scott you're right on the first point.



    But if the strategy is to change every 2-3 years the big picture to confuse the competitors, what's about the developers and the companies who invest on some near-to-be obsolete technologies.



    I don't understand the logic behind such idea.



    IMHO, it's like preparing a nice wedding cake and at the very last minute destroy it in case some other couple will choose the same ;-)

  • But the key is that you do not know! Microsoft is working on what they think is the best thing that they can come up with.... If Microsoft knew 10 years ago that they would eventually move to managed code they would not have messed around with all this other stuff for so long, they would have just jumped to .NET. If something better comes up in five years, I hope they drop .NET and move toward that. If you do not constantly evolve you become a dinosaur like Novell, or Sun. :)



    The only thing about the future that we know for certain is change.



    -James

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