Don Box on Evolution
Don Box:
Old stuff gets older.New stuff replaces it.Even XML will eventually be overtaken by something else.When this stops happening, I'm changing professions.
Well sometimes things just work. Then, unless "fashion"
matters, they don't change. Either the thing reaches a level
of simplicity that can't be improved upon (seen any new
designs for coat hangers lately?) or they become so
entrenched that only a major industry shift will have any
effect on their dominance.
An example of the latter would be TCP/IP. It just works. We
got it right and now the level of focus is on secondary
things -- appliances to interpret and route it, encryption,
and so on. Even as addressing migrates to IPv6, the
mechanics don't change all that much, just the size of the
address space. It amounts to a new feature, conceptually
closer to making int32 available in addition to int16, not
so much like the jump from IPX/SPX to TCP/IP, or from CISC
to RISC where designers need to change their language
entirely.
XML is one of those things that is is general enough it
probably won't change all that much, though our tools for
manipulating and expressing it will. It is inherently
flexible and already proven useful whatever the culture,
character set, industry, or methodology it is applied to. It
just works.
The boundary of focus was once the PC, then the network,
then the WAN, then the Internet. Next it's about connecting
the Internet to mobile devices and everyday objects.
At the same time, business has moved from connecting PCs to
connecting the Enterprise to connecting companies with XML
and next will be about communication among industries.
When the boundaries stop moving, then I'll change
professions. Don, in the meantime, save a seat by the pool.
Further reading: